I am the one who knocks

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Is Donald Trump Driving 10Y Yields Higher?

Think the US election doesn’t matter for asset markets? You’d certainly have every reason to make your case. After all, the most contentious and potentially history-altering election in modern history hasn’t been enough to derail the equity and bond rallies; recent long-end mini-VaR shocks notwithstanding. Uncertainty around the future for US economic policy is profound… Keep Reading

central banks/Rates

This Is How Wrong The Fed Has Been…

It’s no secret that the Fed has been continually forced to revise lower its projections for US rates. The market is increasingly skeptical of the Fed’s willingness and/or ability to embark on the illusive tightening cycle. Below, find two telling graphs from Deutsche Bank which show just how much (not to mention how often) the… Keep Reading

central banks/Credit/Rates

One Trader Explains Where Your “Rear-End” Is Headed

For those who aren’t familiar, one of the most entertaining reads on the Street is Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic who writes the derivatives section of the bank’s weekly report on US FI. Last September, he famously referred to the Fed’s admission that global financial markets are part and parcel of the FOMC’s reaction function as “removing… Keep Reading


Your Complete September Event Risk Guide

There’s no question about it, September is a big month. Central bankers run amok will be the main theme, representing all kinds of tail risk for rates and FX. Will we see a dramatic policy divergence via more accommodation from Draghi, a material change in BoJ policy, and a second consecutive BoE cut in the… Keep Reading

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