Behold: The August NFP “Dot Plot”

in Economy by

Well, this is funny. Citi has plotted the last 19 August NFP prints in a kind of visual preview for Friday biggest jobs number ever (until the next one). We’re not sure if they’re trying to send a message with the Microsoft Paint additions in red:


(Chart: Citi)

Here’s their point:

“We note the ‘dots’ for the initial print in August in the 19 instances from and including 1997 onwards. This ‘initial word’ is important as we feel most people look back at what was the final number but it is the initial print that is the market driver at the time.”

So if history is any guide, we could well get a number below 125K which would of course woefully inadequate against consensus.


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