I am the one who knocks

NFPDots
Economy

Behold: The August NFP “Dot Plot”

Well, this is funny. Citi has plotted the last 19 August NFP prints in a kind of visual preview for Friday biggest jobs number ever (until the next one). We’re not sure if they’re trying to send a message with the Microsoft Paint additions in red: (Chart: Citi) Here’s their point: “We note the ‘dots’… Keep Reading

Effects
Credit

How Much Does Exported QE Matter? Spoiler Alert: A Lot

On of the key themes of late is the extent to which the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB/BoJ are putting a bid under US paper. As we showed you last week, Y/Y growth in the foreign demand for US corporate paper is growing at a double-digit pace and by Wells’ estimates foreigners now… Keep Reading

DB
Credit

It’s “Natural”

Earlier today we said the following regarding the Fed and “optionality”: “It’s all just a matter of counter cyclical breathing room. What’s becoming quite clear as we plunge ever deeper into the Keynesian rabbit hole is that zero really is the “lower bound.” These policies have literally stopped working altogether. In fact, as we’ve shown… Keep Reading

NIRP
Debt/IG/Investment Grade

What NIRP Hath Wrought

The relentless hunt for yield continues unabated and it can’t even be hedged anymore when it comes to US government paper thanks to a worsening dollar crunch. So what is one to do? Well, dive into USD corporate paper of course: From Wells: “Alongside this rapid expansion of the corporate market, the investor base has… Keep Reading

Credit
Debt

Demographic Debacle

There are major concerns across markets about demographics. Not the least of which emanate from Japan. But do you know how you “correct” the problem? Well by expanding credit of course. From Citi’s Matt King:   Debt folks. Debt. That’s the solution to everything. But what happens to that dynamic when lenders are getting negative… Keep Reading

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