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Everything You Need To Know About Friday

Friday summary: Banks (JPM, WFC, C) all beat thanks in no small part to strong fixed income trading results. Yay. Deutsche Bank won’t be getting a government bailout (or at least that’s what Berlin is saying on Friday). Oh, no. Money market reform went into effect presumably making the system safer (yay) but removing nearly $1… Keep Reading

central banks/Economy

Why Is QE Failing?

You might have noticed something rather disturbing unfolding over the past half decade or so when it comes to QE. Have a look at global central bank liquidity: (Chart: Citi) So here we are, right back to the peak in terms of flow and yet what do we get for it? Still sluggish growth, still… Keep Reading


Where Are We In The Cycle?

Economists these days are increasingly sure they can “smooth out” the business cycle rather than just forestall the inevitable. They are wrong. And they’ve been proven so time and again. “Smoothing out the business cycle” just means destroying creative destruction thus not allowing the system to purge itself of misallocated capital thereby leading to even… Keep Reading


Here’s How To Trade The Election

We’ve spilled quite a bit of digital ink explaining how the uncertainty surrounding the US election isn’t even close to priced in. Have a look at the following chart from Goldman: (Chart: Goldman) And so, with the S&P at damn near 18X and bonds trading at historically stretched levels, here’s a rundown via Bloomberg on… Keep Reading


Central Banks Have “Distorted Classic Frameworks”

A strange thing has happened in the central bank-controlled post-crisis world. Equities have become akin to bonds and bonds akin to equities. That is, the risk is in fixed income, whereas equities have become a shadow of their former selves, exhibiting low volatility and reliable returns. How long will this perversion last? How long, considering… Keep Reading

central banks/Economy

Why Did The Fed Not Talk More About The Election?

What have we been saying for weeks? That the weak ISM non-manufacturing number, the weak retail print, and the sub-consensus August payrolls print would be all the Fed needed to go “full-Brainard.” Well, they didn’t go “full-Brainard” per se – there were three dissents. And as it turns out, Yellen didn’t really cite that data. Which surprised… Keep Reading

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